Posts Tagged ‘Trafalgar poll’

WHO WILL WIN THE 2020 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION?

INTRODUCTION

November 3, 2020 will be a momentous presidential election because of the huge differences in what both major political parties are advocating.    However, it’s also going to be one of the messiest in U.S. history, far worse than the messy 2000 Bush-Gore  presidential election.  Who in the end will win, Trump or Biden?  This is complex so we need to analyze it in writing.

POLLS

Most polls show Biden with a large lead, however those polls over- sample Democrat voters by as much as ten percentage points or more, and significantly under-sample Republican voters.  These polls can best be characterized as “suppression polls” because they are intended to demoralize Trump voters so that they don’t even bother to vote because they think that it’s useless since Biden is so far ahead.  There is a poll that was very accurate in the 2016 and 2012 presidential elections (Rasmussen) so I follow it and don’t bother with most of the others.   There are others that I trust (Trafalgar, Insider Advantage) and therefore I also follow them.  All of them show President Trump as winning.  A relatively new phenomenon this year is the “shy Trump voter.”  These voters are not honest with pollsters because they fear physical retaliation (to their cars, homes, person) from the far left (of the Democrat Party) whom they believe to be crazy with hatred for President Trump.

OTHER METRICS

There are other factors that should be considered in attempting to accurately predict  who will be elected president on November 3.  Enthusiasm of your voters is important because it predicts voter turnout.  “Are you better off today than you were four years ago?” is a telling question.  Four years ago, after Obama, it was 36%.  Today, after four years of Trump, it’s 56 %.  Media coverage is important because it’s needed to get your message out.  The Mainstream Media TV stations (ABC, CBS, NBC, CNN, MSNBC) are, and have been for four years, in the strong anti-Trump camp, as is the large technology companies (Google, Twitter, Facebook) which sensor conservative speech from their platforms.  However, five of the cable news channels (Fox, Fox Business, One America News, Newsmax, Newsy) do also report conservative view-points.

RECENT DEVELOPMENTS

Recent relevant developments that will affect the election:

  1. Pennsylvania, nicknamed the “Keystone State” may be this election’s keystone by deciding who wins the election.  Recent riots in Philadelphia may sway more Philadelphia and Pennsylvania  voters to Trump, who has run on a “law and order” ticket.  In addition, many large cities have had riots, looting, and violence this year, destroying many businesses.  This may also help President Trump be re-elected.
  2. Engaging in voter fraud this election is child’s play with unsolicited mail-in ballots (ballots not requested in advance).  See my post on this blog on voter fraud if you’re unconvinced.  Eighty million unsolicited  mail-in ballots have been mailed out.  Blue States have been changing their election rules to count votes for up to 10 days after election day.  People may recall that in the 2008 Minnesota Senatorial election that’s how Al Frankin beat Norm Coleman, as boxes of all-Frankin ballots were “found” until there were enough “found” votes for Al Frankin to be declared the winner.
  3. Trump should receive about 25% of the African-American vote (unlike the traditional 10% that Republican presidents usually receive).
  4. The economy has come roaring back from the Covid-19 lockdown…third quarter CY ’20 GDP (Gross Domestic Product) increased by 33.1% on an annualized basis, which is the greatest increase in U.S. history.
  5. Trump’s “Operation Warp Speed” is giving the U.S. a vaccine in less that a year from the onset vs. what it would have taken, a few years.
  6. People are sick of the lockdown, which death rates show is unwarranted…and Joe Biden is for more lockdowns…and most people don’t like it.
  7. Mountains of evidence have recently surfaced showing Joe Biden and his family to be corrupt and compromised.
  8. President Trump’s nomination and Republican Senate confirmation of justice Amy Coney Barrett.

CONCLUSION & PREDICTION

Considering all of the polls, as well as other factors and recent developments, I think that the President is going to win.  It’s difficult to be very precise for this election because of the large number of “shy Trump voters” as well as the unprecedented amount of voter fraud, which I estimate to be in the millions.  However, given all of the above, I believe there will be a Trump landslide with the President receiving over 325 Electoral College votes.

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