Posts Tagged ‘modified herd immunity’

CORONAVIRUS UPDATE: open the economy, get back to work

The Coronavirus or COVID-19 is now believed to have originated at the Wuhan Institute of Virology in the Wuhan province in China.  It spread to many countries from Wuhan, including to the United States, where it remained relatively low due to the travel restrictions that President Trump imposed on January 31 on flights originating from China’s Wuhan province and later on other countries with high infection rates.

The spread of the virus is only able to be slowed down but not stopped since there is no vaccine to prevent it yet.  However, slowing the spread was very important in order to prevent a huge spike in cases that could have inundated U.S. medical facilities.  In addition, more time was needed to enable medical researchers to develop a vaccine and effective treatments before “community spread” of the virus covered all of the U.S.   Currently, prevention tactics are the only things we can do to avoid getting the virus with the exception that Hydroxychloroquine has a prophylactic effect .  These prevention tactics are everywhere (www.coronavirus.gov) so I won’t repeat them here.  However, strengthening your immune system so that you can survive the virus is something anyone can do immediately so  at least take the RDA (recommended daily allowance) of vitamins, calcium and magnesium, but a large daily dose of vitamin D (5,000 International Units [IU]/day).

So what’s my prognosis?  The virus will continue to spread, despite s social distancing and hand-washing, perhaps into the hundreds of thousands since it’s highly contagious.  The upcoming Spring and Summer warm weather should give us a temporary reprieve until about October.  Mortality in the U.S. is under one percent of those who catch it. People with weak immune systems (the chronically ill and the elderly) are much more likely to die from it than younger people. The flu currently kills many more people than Coronavirus, 30-60,000/year in  the U.S. alone, even with readily-available flu vaccine.  Treatments for Coronavirus are available now (possibly Hydroxychloroquine (Plaquenil)  with Azithromycin; Remdesivir; plasma from Coronavirus-recoverd patients), a vaccine should be available in about a year.  Hydroxychloroquine has been very effective in New York, China, India, South Korea, Israel, France, Turkey, Spain, etc.  I believe it will be a “game-changer” that helps America get back to work

Testing for the virus has been a problem in the United States but it finally was begun to be resolved on March 13 when the President brought in the CEOs  (Chief Executive Officers) from many large corporations to assist with the government’s testing efforts, as well as the manufacture of ventilators, masks, etc.   Today, about 100,000 Americans are being tested every day.  Coronvirus  symptoms can include high temperature, dry cough, fatigue, shortness of breath, headache, runny or stuffy nose, sore throat, chills, vomiting, diarrhea, body ache, bluish toes, etc.  Infected people can have only one of the symptoms, or even none.  China has also reported that loss of smell and taste can be early symptoms of the virus.can

Coronavirus is just one more disease that can kill you but it doesn’t have a high mortality rate except for the elderly who have about a 15% death rate of those infected.  Follow the same precautions for preventing any infectious disease but don’t panic.  Once again I want to emphasize that strengthening your immune system will greatly help you to survive the virus and is something that you can begin doing now with supplements, nutritious food and exercise, which includes walking.  Finally, Japan doesn’t practice social distancing but everyone wears a mask…and as of 4/2/20 only 70 people in Japan have died from Covid-19.  Sweden has never closed down, has practiced social distancing, yet only has a moderate amount of Coronavirus infections and deaths.

CONCLUSION

I believe that the final solution is to ease into a modified “herd immunity” where a large portion of the population has had the virus and quickly recovers (and therefore now immune).  However, instead of 20 days being ill, Hydroxychloroqine, Remdesivir, Convalescent Plasma and other therapeutics significantly reduce sick time.  No country can afford to have its economy mostly shut down for more than a month or so with all of the hardship, pain and death (suicide, drug overdose, etc.) that would accompany a longer-term shutdown.  This is a tough solution and that’s why it’s the final solution…everything else has been tried first.  Absent a vaccine, I believe the U.S., State by State,  will have to end the shutdown and then go with herd immunity but with speedy testing, effective treatment, social distance where possible, frequent hand-washing, wearing a mask, being outside where the likelihood of getting infected is much less, widespread use of upper-room, low-dose, ultra-violet light, and most people taking 5,000 International Units (IU)/day of vitamin D.  President Trump has almost total authority in this situation under the National Emergencies Act of 1976, the Public Health Services Act of 1944, and the Disaster Relief Act. On April 16 the White House Covid-19 Task Force provided the details on re-opening the economy in three phrases, to be used by each State as they curtail the virus in their State..

 

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