Putin explains his thoughts on Ukraine in this book
Vladimir Putin, President of Russia, had 200,000 Russian troops invade Ukraine on three sides beginning on February 24, 2022. Why did Putin invade Ukraine and what did he want? He has said that he really wanted assurances that Ukraine would never be admitted as a member of NATO. The U.S. had told him that decision was up to NATO and Ukraine, not the United States, and also signed a November 10, 2021, agreement to protect Ukraine. However, Putin also said that he wanted to reconstitute the former Soviet Union and allegedly had a military second only to the United States (so his threat needed to be taken seriously). Moreover, Putin saw how a weak President Biden left behind in Afghanistan hundreds of Americans, tens of thousands of Afghans that assisted the U.S., $85 billion in military equipment, a huge military base close to China… and therefore could invade Ukraine without concern that the United States would intervene.
Ukrainians have been courageously and fiercely defending their country against overwhelming odds using American Javelin missiles to destroy Russian tanks and American Stinger missiles to destroy Russian helicopters and planes. In 1994, the U.S and Russia guaranteed Ukraine that it would be protected if it gave up its nuclear weapons. It unwisely gave them up. Civilians have been given weapons and taught how to make Molotov Cocktails. Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelensky, has rallied many countries in the world to assist Ukraine with weapons, cash, and volunteers to defend themselves against the Russian military. The United States, however, is Ukraine’s largest defender with over $118 billion being given thus far. Ukraine is still being slowly destroyed every day with constant artillery, missiles and bombs.
President Biden demonstrated weakness and incompetence, but also, in the time that Joe Biden has been President, a barrel of oil increased in price from about $40/barrel to about $100/barrel. This has enriched huge-oil-exporter Russia to the extent that it could afford to have Russia’s military attack Ukraine with expensive missiles and bombs. The huge increase in the price of oil that enabled Russian aggression was due to: Biden preventing any new leases on Federal lands for oil and gas exploration and drilling; Biden stopping the Keystone and other oil and gas pipelines; Biden stopping any oil and gas exploration and drilling in Alaska; Biden significantly increasing fees for drilling on existing leases on Federal lands; Biden stopping off-shore drilling; Biden stopping fracking. However, the world is not technologically ready to cease using fossil fuels. It might be in about 40 years. The U.S. has “jumped the gun” and is paying the price in massive inflation as well as some of our adversaries, Russia, Iran, Venezuela, being enriched by the high price of oil.
CAN PEACE BE ACHIEVED?
If the United States began arming Ukraine when Russia began moving troops to the Ukraine border in April 2021, the war might have been prevented. Now, a negotiated settlement is probably the most likely end of the war. However, things could get a lot worse first, with poison gas and tactical nuclear weapons. It’s in everyone’s interests to end this war since 100,000 Ukrainians and 200,000 Russians have been killed as I write this post. In addition, Ukraine is running out of fighters with old men and young teenagers joining the war.
Is peace even possible since Ukraine wants all of the Ukrainian land back and Russia wants to keep Crimea and Eastern Ukraine. It might be possible if each gets enough of what they want to compromise and strike a deal. This is unacceptable to Ukraine…it wants all of its land back. Moreover, it might be a very bad message to send to dictators, allowing Russia to keep their ill-gotten gains. So what’s to be done?
Americans are currently supporting the war, but this will most likely will change if the war continues too long, so perhaps it’s time to give Ukraine the weapons it wants and needs to go on major offensives and push the Russians back into Russia. The U.S. hasn’t done this thus far…it says for fear of pushing Russia into using tactical (battlefield) nuclear weapons. Since China appears likely to support the war by providing lethal aid (weapons) to Russia, I believe it’s time to get serious about winning. The fact that the war is a political winner for the President portends that it will continue on at least until the 2024 Presidential election.
If it turns out that Ukraine cannot push Russia completely out of its country, then the U.S. should push it to negotiate peace with Russia, most likely giving Russia some Ukrainian land. The fastest and least provocative way to end this war is for the U.S. to become energy independent again. This would drive down the world price of oil to about $40-45/barrel, at which point Russia could no longer afford to continue the war.
