Posts Tagged ‘President Trump’

HOW WILL PRESIDENT TRUMP ELIMINATE ANNUAL FEDERAL BUDGET DEFICITS?

The United States government currently owes over $21 trillion, called the National Debt.   Each year the National Debt is increased by the amount of money the government overspends that year, which is over the amount it collects.  This amount is called the Annual Budget Deficit. When President Obama took office, the National Debt was $9 trillion.  When he left office it was almost $20 trillion.  President Trump continued having hefty budget deficits, mostly because of the higher interest rates on U.S. Treasury bonds that the government is paying, in addition to the cost of bringing back the military to be combat-ready, which had significantly weakened by the underfunding by the Obama Administration.  Consequently, at some point in the next few years, the Federal government may not be able to afford to pay interest on the ever-increasing  National Debt.

This problem is probably the most serious one that the U.S. faces.  President Trump is fixing every one of the country’s serious problems (though you would never know it from the pitiful biased Main-Stream Media which simply doesn’t report it) so what does he plan to do about this  upcoming financial disaster?  Here’s what I believe he will do, starting now and ending the last year of his 8-year presidency:

President Trump is significantly increasing revenues to the Federal government by stimulating the business environment in the United States, which has increased the number of people working and the revenues from their taxes, even at reduced tax rates.  He’s also making Americans more prosperous by reducing their tax load.  Most recently, he’s cutting 5% from all Federal Departments.  I initially thought that in a few years the U.S. might not even have a deficit, but with the Federal Reserve continuing to increase interest rates on U.S. Treasury bonds, the interest on the National Debt is much higher today (over 3 %) than it was when Obama was President ( approx. 1 % ).  This translates into the government paying hundreds of billions more for interest on the National Debt than it had been paying only two years ago, and this makes it much more difficult for the government to eliminate its annual budget deficits.

Despite the Federal Reserve increasing interest rates, however, I believe President Trump will still eliminate annual government budget deficits, estimated to be about $779 billion in fiscal year 2020, and perhaps also probably start paying down the National Debt by the end of his second term, with one caveat.  Trump must have a Republican House of Representatives and a Republican Senate in order to put the U.S. financial house in order.  Democrat leaders will do anything to make Trump fail and prevent his straightening out the economy.

In the final phase of eliminating annual budget deficits, President Trump will eliminate useless and duplicative Federal programs and pare down programs that have shown only meager results.  This will be very unpopular with the general public and that ‘s why he’ll do most of it near the end of his presidency.  How do I know what President Trump will do and when?  Here’s how:

  1. I went to the same school as President Trump, Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, though my Masters was from the FEls Government Center, which back when I graduated (1972) was in the Wharton School.  My focus was on government, not finance, but there still was some commonality between the two programs though Trump became a billionaire and I became a Federal employee.
  2. I’ve followed politics for 60 years, beginning with the Kennedy-Nixon TV debates, and have worked for the federal government for over 40 years, a city government for over a year and a State government for less than a year.
  3. I’ve followed Trump beginning a year before he became President.  I know why he does what he does and can explain most of his actions, unlike the pitiful mainstream media.
All Services

NATIONAL DEFENSE AUTHORIZATION ACT: PROS & CONS

Each year, the National Defense Authorization Act is controversial.  In 2012, for example, it basically funded our military for the year but also was the first time it contained provisions for apprehending and detaining indefinitely any U.S. citizen suspected of terrorism without charging him/her with any crime.  President Obama wanted such power although this was not in accordance with the U.S. Constitution and could have been a slippery slope, where a well-meaning law, eventually morphs into something sinister.  President Obama added a “Signing Statement” specifying when he might use the authority, but even if you take him at his word, opponents ask “how about future presidents?”  Might they use it?  How about President Trump?  The 2012 National Defense Authorization Act was for only one year, so didn’t the provision expire at the end of that year?

Strengthening the military was one of the tenets that President Trump ran for President on.  However, building up the military  does not require doing anything unconstitutional.  In fact. the Department of Defense Appropriations, 2018, was for $700 billion and significantly strengthened the military, after eight years of it being starved of the financial resources needed to keep it combat-ready.  In addition, under the Bipartisan Budget Act of 2018, the Department of Defense will receive $716 billion in appropriations for Fiscal Year 2019.  The FY 2018 appropriations includes $589.5 billion in base Department of Defense funding and $65.2 billion in Overseas Contingency Operations funding.

A significant plus for the military, aside from all of the new equipment to be purchased, is the 2.4 % pay raise for military personnel.  Also included in Fiscal Year 2018 Department of Defense Appropriations is the following:

o MISSILE DEFENSE: $9.5 billion for the Missile Defense Agency (in addition to the $2 billion given to the MDA in December 2017)

o SHIPBUILDING: $23.8 billion for many new ships including one aircraft carrier

o AIRCRAFT PROCUREMENT: $44.0 billion for many new aircraft

o MUNITIONS: $16.2 billion for ammunition and missiles

o NATIONAL GUARD AND RESERVE EQUIPMENT: $1.3 billion for equipment to modernize reserve forces

o SPACE: $800 million for Air Force space programs

o BASIC RESEARCH INVESTMENTS: $2.3 billion for basic research for the military

o DEFENSE HEALTH: $34.8 billion for the Defense Health program

With the increased appropriations for both FY 2018 and FY 2019 the military will be much stronger than it is today.  Over Obama’s eight years, military strength significantly decreased.  A weakened U.S. military invites challenges.  National defense is the number one responsibility of the Federal government.  All other activities and programs are possible only because the nation is secure.  The easiest way to avoid war is to have our military so strong that no one would dare challenge it.  A Chinese general, Sun Tzu, wrote about this strategy 2,500 years ago in his book, The Art of War.

 

 

 

WHY DO HALF OF AMERICAN VOTERS STILL VOTE DEMOCRAT?

With the Democrat Party moving far left, why are half of voters still Democrats?  That’s what we’ll examine here.

The Democrat Party’s history goes way back to Andrew Jackson.  President Jackson was a populist and championed the working class, though he did force the Seminole Indians in Florida to move to Oklahoma, far from their Tribal lands, with many dying along the way, thus the name the “Trail of Tears.”  When the Confederacy lost the Civil War, the Democrat Party supported the Klu Klux Klan and then the “Jim Crow” laws that kept African-Americans subjugated.

Aside from its checkered past, the Party successfully fought to have itself branded as being a champion for the poor, minorities, and the working class.  If this were ever true in the past, it’s certainly no longer true today.  Today’s Democrat Party is not your father’s Democrat Party.  Therefore, I ask the question, “why do about half of Americans still vote Democrat?”  Here’s why…

-President John F. Kennedy was the most prominent democrat in the past and many voters still think of the Democrat Party as being the Party of JFK (though it has moved far to the left from where JFK stood on issues).

-The mainstream media (New York Times, Washington Post, ABC, CBS, NBC, CNN, MSNBC) are propagandists for the Democrat Party.  Over 90% of their reporting on President Trump is negative and some is actually fabricated, reporting on the insignificant “palace intrigue” rather than on Trump’s substantive accomplishments with the economy, jobs, minority employment, etc.  Stories that make liberals look bad are usually not reported.

-Most of Hollywood is a major propagandist for the Democrat Party, using its fame with the public to sway voters.

-Most Universities and colleges are propagandists for the Democrat Party.  Professors deliberately misstate  the Conservative side of issues and also attribute nefarious motives to Republicans and Conservatives.

-Silicon Valley uses its vast power to suppress conservative ideas on the Internet but air liberal ideas.

-Republican politicians, with the exception of President Trump, generally do not fight back against the constant onslaught of criticism and phony allegations from their Democrat oponents.  Therefore, voters hear mostly just one side criticizing the other and never even hear both sides of issues.

-There is a significant amount of voter fraud, as documented by various credible sources such as the Pew Research Center.  Almost all of the fraud is for Democrat candidates and explains why DNC policy is against any form of photo ID being required to vote, using the pretext that it’s voter suppression.

-Many voters do not follow closely national issues.  They can repeat what they hear on the Left’s propaganda mainstream media (MSM) machine, but they don’t know both sides of the issues.  Therefore, followers of MSM are usually Democrats, thus the war by the Left against Fox News, which is not part of the MSM.  Even simply hearing the conservative or Republican side would change the minds of many voters so the DNC and Democrat politicians try to persuade their base not to watch Fox News, which they label “fake news.”

-Most Democrat issues are phony issues, created to persuade voters to vote Democrat.  These include the non-existent “War on Women”, the Left’s attempt to take protective guns away from law-abiding citizens through its”War on Guns”,  blaming climate change mostly on people rather than mostly on solar flares, calling everyone a racist who does not agree with their position on issues, the Left’s war on the police, the military, and ICE, etc., etc., etc.

CONCLUSION

I’ve been following politics since the 1960 TV debates between John Kennedy and Richard Nixon.  Back then, both political parties were relatively honest in advocating their views.  It’s much different today.  Other than being against every policy that President Trump supports, what policies does the Democrat Party stand for?  Other than being for abolishing ICE, not constructing a border wall, giving all illegal aliens amnesty, a weak military, free college and Medicare-for-all, and $15/hour minimum wage, I have no idea what it stands for.  Do you?

POLITICAL TALK IS CHEAP

President Trump does not speak eloquently, but thus far he’s getting a lot of things done.

President Obama, on the other hand,  was an eloquent speaker, but he didn’t get much done to improve the lives of most Americans.  Or did he?  If you liked how the economy and his job-creation efforts performed (lowest civilian labor-force participation rate since 1978), and liked the declining strength of the military, and think our foreign policy helped the United States, then you might believe that President Obama performed well. Or perhaps those things are not that important to you but  Obama’s Presidential demeanor was important.

Because the President is our spokesperson to the world, most do want him or her to be presidential. President Obama was usually presidential but didn’t get much accomplished; President Trump is not presidential at times but has been very successful in creating jobs and making the economy outstanding. What’s important to you?

I heard many times each day that “Obama said this,” or “Obama said that,” and now, “that Trump tweeted this or said that.”  However, what a President says is not nearly as important as his actions because that’s a much better indicator than words how he and the U.S. are doing.  For example,when President Obama said that he thought about the economy every day, but then didn’t meet with his “Jobs Council” for many months at a time, it’s was  natural to question the President’s sincerity.  When Obama suggested he “felt our pain,” but took Air Force One to New York where traffic was stopped for hours so he and Michelle could have a “night out” in “The Big Apple,” that said a lot more about his true feelings.  In a few years I’ll know enough to address President Trump’s shortcomings, but for now I have to stick to what I know after years of observation, President Obama.

President Obama’s $800 billion “stimulus” the first year he was in office was a fiasco.  Wouldn’t unemployment have been even worse without it, which is how it was sold to the American public?  Much of the stimulus was a waste of money…only 6% of it went for infrastructure projects within the United States though infrastructure was touted as one of its justifications.  Reality is that much of the stimulus went for failed so-called “green” projects, like Solyndra,  led by his friends and supporters.  The President “talked the talk,” but he didn’t “walk the walk.”  Of course,  the Federal Reserve consequently pumped billions/month into the economy with nothing to back it…which is why the Stock Market continued to rise though the economy did not do well.

If you saw the movie, “2016” you may think this is exactly what Obama wanted…larger government, a weaker United States.  I think the creators of that movie gave the President far too much credit…it’s a lot simpler than that…he simply didn’t understand how free enterprise works and that it not only leads to economic success so that a country can afford to take care of its poor and have an effective military, but it is morally and ethically superior to all other forms of government because it gives everyone an opportunity for the satisfying  “earned success.”

President Obama talked a great game but it took all of the mainstream media, most of Hollywood, most universities and colleges, the Unions, and far-left, multi-billionaire George Soros’ money, to keep him from not having bad job approval numbers.  I believe the only way the Democrats were able to win the popular vote in 2016 was by massive voter fraud in California , which goes back to “Boss Tweed” and Tammany Hall, which  is part of the heritage of the Democrat Party.  Specifically, California passed a law allowing undocumented immigrants (or illegal immigrants) to get California driver licences; and then passed a Motor-Voter law that almost automatically registered them to vote.  A Harvard study showed that in 2008, 6.4% (certified), (14% uncertified) of illegal aliens voted.  I believe these numbers will be dwarfed by the 2016 numbers.

President Trump is brash and blunt in his rhetoric at times, but he is a doer, insofar as he has gotten a lot of good things done for the United States, especially huge job creation.  I expect him to stay the course but it’s possible that he could revert to a usual politician who is all talk and no action.

 

 

THE U.S. IMMIGRATION DILEMMA: PROS & CONS

I had three friends in Denver, Colorado who were from Colombia, South America, two of whom were jailed for two months and then deported back to Colombia.  They had come to America seeking asylum for the mother of a son who was killed by terrorists, as well as asylum for her daughter and son-in-law to care for her.  While the elderly mother was granted political asylum, her daughter and son-in-law were not because the mother already had another daughter living in the U.S. that could take care of her.  ICE (US Immigration & Customs Enforcement) grabbed my two friends at their workplace and put them in a detention center for about two months.  I visited them every night…it was a horrible experience for them.

I mentioned the above because you need to know my bias on the subject of immigration…it tugs at my heartstrings and makes me uneasy to talk about, but talk about it I must.  First, I can understand how someone in a poor country might want to come to America to seek a job and a better life for his or her family, even if done illegally.  On the other hand, I can understand why the U.S. would want to control the number of immigrants coming into the country and know exactly who they are, especially in this age of terrorism, drug smuggling, and human trafficking.  Illegal immigration over the U.S.’s southern border has become so very political that it’s almost impossible to discuss it without emotions overpowering reasoning, but we need to at least try.

Illegal immigration is out of control through: 1)illegal border crossings, 2)U.S. Visa overstays, 3)family chain immigration, and, 4)Diversity Visa Lottery (Green Card Lottery) immigration.  It’s costing U.S. taxpayers billions of dollars and has facilitated narcotics throughout America, as well as significantly increasing violent crime in our cities and towns.  The backbone of President Trump’s plan to stop illegal immigration is the construction of a 30-ft. high border wall along most of the border the U.S. shares with Mexico. With a wall, it doesn’t matter if the next President wants open borders…the wall would funnel illegal aliens to enter legally only through legal ports of entry located all along our southern border.

There are a number of tangential issues surrounding the immigration issue, such as what do we do with the 20 million or more undocumented workers currently in the U.S., but these issues can all be resolved once the border wall is built and illegal immigration completely stopped.  Finally, although the human suffering surrounding this issue on all sides is tragic, I think the best solution for everyone is to build the wall and enforce immigration laws.

 

SINGAPORE: KIM JONG UN and PRESIDENT TRUMP MAKE PEACE


North Korea (NOKO) tested 9 missiles in 2017 but none in 2018.  The United States successfully tested one of its SDI (Strategic Defense Initiative) missiles on May 30, 2017, launching it from Vandenberg Air Force Base in California.  It shot down a missile that was launched from the Marshall Islands in the Pacific Ocean.  In the recent past it was successful only about 50% of the time, however, with recent improvements, it looks like it’s successful all of the time.  This is very important to the security of South Korea, Japan, and Hawaii, all of which are currently within reach of NOKO’s missiles.  Very shortly, the U.S. mainland will also be within reach of NOKO’s missiles.  Were it not for President Ronald Reagan, the U.S. would not have this “star wars” capability today.  Russian General Secretary Gorbachev pressed Reagan at their nuclear summit in Reykjavik, Iceland in 1986, but Reagan walked out of the talks rather than give up his Strategic Defense Initiative, nicknamed “starwars”.  The Democrat Congress tried to stop its development back then, as well as it and Democrat presidents up to the present, giving the Democrat Party the nickname the “Treason Party”.

NOKO has thousands of conventional artiliary aimed at Seoul,South Korea, many in hardened bunkers.  If the U.S. tried to destroy NOKO’s missile facilities, NOKO could kill at least a million South Koreans before all of their arsenal was obliterated by the U.S..  NOKO has the third largest army, after the U.S. and China. The U.S. recently tried to deploy its one-billion-dollar THAD anti-missile system in South Korea, as well as three aircraft carriers in the waters surrounding North Korea.

Ninety percent of NOKO’s trading is with China, making China very influential over NOKO.  President Trump pressured China to coerce NOKO to stop testing its missiles and meet with President Trump.  China, plus strong trade sanctions, convinced NOKO.  Previous presidents tried bribing NOKO, but NOKO did not keep any of its agreements with the U.S.

Life in North Korea, with the exception of its capitol, Pyongyang, is a living hell, with little food and electricity and government overwhelmingly horrible, similar to life depicted in George Orwell’s book, 1984, as explained in Barbara’s Demick’s  book on NOKO, Nothing to Envy.  However, North Koreans have been brainwashed to the extent that they worship Kim Jong-un, his father and grandfather as gods and believe all of the propaganda that the government presents.  Pyongyang sounds like a chapter out of the book, Stepford Wives.  To live there, a North Korean and his/her family must live an impeccable life, 100% loyal and obedient.

What will happen as a result of the Singapore Summit and the agreement Trump and Kim signed that NOKO will denuclearize?  No one can know for sure because NOKO has previously lied and cheated, however, I believe that President Trump’s unique personality  and the strong team he has assembled makes him and his administration distinctly capable of guiding the U.S. through these dangerous times.   

DEMOCRAT PARTY & OBAMA POLICIES FOOLED US TWICE

I didn’t vote for Barack Obama in 2008 or 2012.  In 2008 it was a very difficult choice for me because I had devoted many years to fighting racial discrimination and eagerly wanted to vote for the first black President.  However, on eight of the top ten National issues, I disagreed with Obama’s positions, so I couldn’t vote for him in good conscience.  Though I didn’t vote for Obama, I believed what he said about his being “post-partisan” and wanting a “transparent” Presidency.  While there were some rumblings on the right about Obama really being a far-left radical, I was unconvinced and believed his message of “hope and change.”  By the 2012 Presidential election, I had become convinced that President Obama followed Democrat policies which destroyed many businesses and jobs, and made health insurance unaffordable for anyone who paid for Obamacare themselves.

Eight years after electing Barrack Obama president, President Obama had a record of a number of failures, of wasting trillions of dollars, of race relations being much worse than when he became President, and of creating a health care system that was far worse and much more expensive than most Americans could afford.  After eight years of Obama, we had a Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate the lowest since 1978, 62.8%, and a Gross Domestic Product (GDP) whose growth did not reach 3% annually for his entire presidency.  Calling President Obama economically incompetent doesn’t come close to describing the situation accurately.  I started following elections in 1952 with President Dwight Eisenhower.  Of the eleven Presidents I have followed since then, President Obama is the worst.  He was unqualified to be President, in part, because he had no executive, managerial, leadership, or even administrative experience.

Now we’re in 2018 and the economy is greatly improved thanks to President Trump and the tax cuts. “But Obama did his best,” you might say.  President Obama’s best was simply not good enough.  He’s was in over his head.  He is a good father and husband, and I’m sure he was a terrific community organizer, but his policies as President have been a disaster and therefore whoever ran as the Democrat nomiee in 2016 should not have been elected because Democrat policies simply did not work.  However, far more important than President Obama’s lack of any relevant qualifications and having had many failures as President, is the fact that he was constantly untruthful to the extent that nothing he said could be trusted as being accurate.  What does this have to do with other Democrats who might run for President in the future?  Everything!

Most democrat policies are very destructive.  There is no war on women (see my post, “War on Women”), no longer very much new man-made Global Warming (see my post, “Global Cooling”), not much racism (see my post, “Obsessed with Race”), a phony gun issue (see my post “More Guns, Less Crime”), etc., ad infinitum.  I spend over six hours/day following national and political issues, and have my Masters degree in Government Administration from the University of Pennsylvania, so it’s easy for me to know who knows what they’re doing and who does not (and President Obama doesn’t know, economically, and had surrounded himself with economic advisors who all believe in Keynesian economics although it has never worked).  Though the U.S. was fooled twice by President Obama and the corrupt Democrat Party in 2008 and 2012, I don’t intend to be fooled by them again.  Let’s see what President Trump and the Republican House and Senate do, despite the Russia Hoax and corrupt “holdovers” from the Obama administration in the FBI and Department of Justice.

WILL PRESIDENT TRUMP BECOME OUR GREATEST PRESIDENT?

George Washington was our greatest President…without him there would be no United States of America.  Abraham Lincoln was our second greatest for ending slavery and preventing the South from seceding from the Union and therefore keeping the United States as one country.  Ronald Reagan was our third greatest because America was in a huge mess after Jimmy Carter’s presidency and Reagan turned it around by rebuilding our military to the extent that the Soviet Union collapsed, and President Reagan also and grew the economy, which resulted in the doubling of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the ten-year period from the time Reagan’s cuts in tax rates went into effect (1983).

I believe that Donald Trump is now our fourth greatest president and may eventually move up to being our third, then our second, and finally our greatest.  He already knows the best policies to pursue for the U.S. to prosper…in addition to knowing how to handle sticky international problems and strengthening our military, but now he needs to become even better at dealing with the Democrats and the media and be far more careful in his choice of words and protecting himself from the likes of Dick Durbin, Nancy Pelosie, Chuck Shumer, Adam Schiff, etc.

As I write this post (2/3/18), President Trump recently signed the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, which is reving up the U.S. economy, big time.  This comes as the President terminated over a 1,000 job-killing useless regulations, initiating a huge increase (7 trillion dollars) in the Stock Market, creation of 2.4 million new jobs, very low unemployment rate (4.1 %), increases in the Civilian Labor-Force Participation Rate, and growth in the Gross Domestic Product by 3-5%.  Morever, by giving the military more flexibility in fighting ISIS, most areas formerly held by ISIS have been recaptured.  President Trump is now trying to get an illegal-immigration-stopping wall built on our southern border, an end to chain migration, and an end to VISA-lottery immigration.  If Congress ever passes his FY 2018 budget, our huge amount of broken-down military hardware will be repaired.

Exactly what does President Trump need to do to become the best President in U.S. history?  Circumstances and the President’s actions in response to them have a lot to do with how great a president becomes.  Therefore, how Trump makes America great again despite everything the mainstream media and the Democrat Party do to stop him, will determine, in part, how great President Trump becomes.  Put more simply, Trump’s political enemies will be somewhat responsible for the degree that he becomes great.  There is a simple Arab saying that makes it clear, “the greater our enemy, the greater the victory over that enemy.”  With the release of the four-page memo from the House Intelligence Committee, President Trump had some very formidable and powerful enemies.

I just listened to the State of the Union speech by President Trump and from that I believe that he is on his way to becoming our greatest.  What does he still need to do to become our greatest?  This is what I believe he needs to do at a minimum:

  1. build the southern border wall, end the visa lottery, end sanctuary cities, severely limit chain migration, establish a merit-based immigration system,
  2. pass a great infrastructure bill, using to the extent possible, mostly state, local and private funds,
  3. completely repeal obamacare and replace it with system for great healthcare insurance system,
  4. get to zero budget deficits and begin significantly paying down the national debt,
  5. eliminate ineffective government programs and agencies and reduce the size of the Federal workforce,
  6. rebuild the military to be stronger than it ever has been,
  7. end the opiod crisis,
  8. expose and end voter fraud,
  9. revitalize and make safe depressed inner cities,
  10. help the Democrat Party clean up its corruption,
  11. appoint many more conservative judges,
  12. be more congenial, don’t severely criticize former presidents, don’t exagerate
  13. be re-elected President in 2020.

In today’s partisan political climate, it’s difficult to get much accomplished without great effort, but President Trump is getting important things done despite his many enemies. We’ll know in a few years how great President Trump will be.  Stay tuned.

WILL PRESIDENT TRUMP CREATE JOBS & GROW THE ECONOMY?

After most recessions, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth comes back with  a strong minimum 5% increase/year.   But not the recession of 2008-09…annual growth averaged under 2% for the eight years that Barrack Obama was President and the Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate diminished to 62.8%, the lowest it had been since 1978.  Moreover, although the official unemployment rate was under 5%, it would have been about 12% if it were measured the way it was back in the year 2000, and over 20% if it were measured the way it was during the Great Depression in the 30’s.

So what happened under President Obama?  Why not the usual strong growth?  Business had  a few trillion dollars that it held onto oversees, so why didn’t it spend its money to expand its operations and create millions of jobs in the U.S.?  There’s a lot of  reasons why business was cautious in expansion…and we need to understand what the problem was in order to continue to turn around today’s economy and foster substantial job growth (and the increased tax revenues that come with job growth).  Of course, the Affordable Care Act (“Obamacare”) is filled with disincentives to job growth, especially full-time jobs, so it was partially responsible. The large number of regulations and tax increases under President Obama also added additional burdens on job creators and that’s another major cause.

But who am I to be pontificating on jobs and the economy?  Well, I do have a masters degree in Government Administration from the University of Pennsylvania.  And my degree is from the Wharton School in the U. of P., which is known for its econometric models of the economy.  To be clear, however, my education was in government, not economics, though I did need to have economics and accounting courses as well as a statistics course in order to graduate from Wharton with my MGA long ago.  I also worked for the Federal government for over40 years in various capacities, and have also worked for the state of Pennsylvania and the city of Philadelphia.

FORMER  SUCCESSFUL QUICK RECOVERIES

Let’s put aside education and experience qualifications because, from my observations, ideology trumps education.  I’ve seen PhD’s advocate  really stupid positions, even in light of contradictory evidence.  So I tend to look at the real world, what actually happens when a particular economic policy is followed and practiced.

I’ll start with the policies used by President John F. Kennedy in the early 1960s.  When confronted with a recession, he cut tax rates which led to increased economic growth and recovery.  In addition, when President Ronald Reagan inherited the worst recession since the Great Depression from President Jimmy Carter in 1980 (unemployment over 10%, inflation 13.5%, mortgage interest rates up to 20%), President Reagan cut tax rates to the extent that GDP almost doubled in ten years and tax revenues to the Federal government greatly increased in the 10 years following the tax rate cuts.  President George W. Bush had a similar experience with tax rate cuts, revenues to the Federal government significantly increased.

PAST FAILURES

Let’s look at what actually happened when the opposite approach was used:  it is estimated that President Franklin D. Roosevelt doubled the duration of the Great Depression in the 1930’s by using the John Keynes economic model of increasing government deficit spending, and the US still did not even get out of the Great Depression until World War II.   Moreover, when Japan’s economy went bust in the 90’s, it spent trillions over a 20-year period trying to stimulate its economy.  The huge deficit spending did nothing except give Japan a huge debt.

WHAT PRESIDENT OBAMA TRIED

Which brings us up to to when President Barrack Obama spent almost a trillion dollars in his “stimulus” package in a effort to turn around the economy…and he also devalued the dollar by having The Federal Reserve Bank print trillions of dollars with no backing through it’s so-called Quantitative Easing 1, 2, and 3.  He also tried other short-term Federal spending programs such as his “cash for clunkers” and engaged in huge annual deficit spending, the extent of which had never been seen before.  His economic policies, based on the discredited theories of economist, John Maynard Keynes,  have actually have made the economy worse by piling up huge government debt (over $20 trillion in total national debt which is greater than the annual GDP of the US), with very little to show for it,  and whose interest payments will be unsustainable when interest rates increase.

Let’s look at other factors significantly adversely affecting the economy, such as oppressive government regulations.  One of the reasons for President Bill Clinton’s economic success in the 1990s was his significantly cutting back many Federal Regulations (as well as the reduction in government employment through attrition) as part of his “National Performance Review” initiative.  President Obama’s policy, on the other hand,  on preventing drilling for oil in the Gulf of Mexico, has resulted in 240,000 barrels/day less oil from the Gulf,  which would have led to large increases in gasoline prices were it not for oil companies engaging in horizontal drilling and fracking on private and State lands.  Another example of over-regulation is the Dodd-Frank bill, the stated purpose of which was to prevent future financial meltdowns…but it did not even deal with the cause of the meltdown, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, who threatened  and coerced banks into making housing loans to people who could not afford to repay them.  Dodd-Frank also had adverse impacts on small banks and dried up loan money for small businesses that would have otherwise been available to them to expand.

Then there’s Obamacare which has been estimated to actually cost the government up to 3 trillion dollars in the first 10 years, as well as lead to very expensive, rationed and inferior health care.   Then, of course, there’s EPA’s over-regulations, such as the one on carbon dioxide, which as we know, is an inert gas, the chief purpose of which is food for plant life, plants which turn carbon dioxide into oxygen.  Moreover, let’s not forget how hundreds of thousands of farm hands were suddenly unemployed when the US Department of the Interior shut off the water to California’s Central Valley in an effort to protect the Delta Smelt (a small fish) that was on the Endangered Species list.  All of these things have severely hurt jobs.  Finally, President Obama extending unemployment benefits to 99 weeks actually increased unemployment because studies show that, on average, unemployment benefit recipients don’t even begin looking for work until 4 weeks prior to the end of their benefits.

IS CUTTING TAX RATES FAIR?

But stimulating the economy by cutting tax rates isn’t fair, is it?  Even President Obama said in an interview a year or so before he was elected President, when confronted with the fact that cutting the capital gains tax rate in the past had actually resulted in increased tax revenues to the Federal government, that he still would not cut the capital gains tax rate because “it isn’t fair.”

So is it fair to cut tax rates even though we know that the result would be to increase tax revenues?  The nation would then have more money to help the poor, not less, so why not do it?  I can understand the “equality” argument but  is it really a good thing if everyone were equally poor as they are in many countries?   “So what” if there are some super-wealthy people…we know that in the United States they will eventually give most of their money to charity anyway and do it much more wisely than the Federal government!   Winston Churchill said that  capitalism is a bad form of government except that it’s better than all other forms of government.

THE SOLUTION

Cutting  tax rates and regulations have always worked in the past and would stimulate the economy and thereby create many jobs.   Political ideology is the only thing preventing our government from following these time-tested strategies.   Presidents Kennedy, Reagan and Bush all increased tax revenues by cutting tax rates for everyone.  Today, the bottom 50% of earners pay almost no Federal income taxes…the upper 10 %, on the other hand,  pay over 70% of all Federal income taxes.  If you believe that’s not enough, how much is enough?  The U.S. corporate tax rate is currently 35%, the highest in the world, and consequently has led to many businesses moving their operations and jobs to other countries and has caused the United States to lose many jobs.  It’s estimated that there are at least 3 trillion dollars off-shore that we could entice back to the US if we offered a temporary ten percent corporate tax rate for the first few years and a contract stating that the corporation would remain in the US for at least another 5 years.  The US needs to put ideology aside and focus on solving the nation’s economic problems.  Although  President Obama appeared very friendly, his policies have really hurt the United States, so it’s time for newly-elected President Trump to: 1)cut tax rates on the working and middle classes, as well as on businesses; 2)rein in the Environmental Protection Agency from over-regulation; 3)eliminate job and small business-killing regulations; 4)cut corporate income taxes from their current 35% (the highest in the world) to 20% to lure back the large number of businesses that moved overseas to escape the U.S. confiscatory taxes; and 5)repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act (“Obamacare”) since it has significantly hampered business expansion.   President Donald Trump has done or will do these things and by so doing will grow the economy and create jobs and consequently significantly reduce the U.S.’ annual budget deficits.

The U.S. Senate, however, due to its slim Republican majority and arcane rules, may not be able to approve the bills necessary to implement the necessary changes.  If this happens, many Senators will lose their jobs in 2018.  However, even without major tax cuts, President Trump, through Executive Orders and deals with many countries and corporations, has increased GDP to over 3% growth for the last two budget quarters.

THE DEMOCRAT, LIBERAL, PROGRESSIVE LEFT

Although I’m mostly conservative, I always try to be even-handed in my writing, giving both sides of issues.  However, the Left has become so radical, and even criminal, that I thought one article that was not even-handed is in order and appropriate…just one.

1. Donald J. Trump was not a politician.  Over the years, he contributed millions to both Democrats and Republicans.  As President, he is not ideological but looks for policies and solutions that are practical.  Democrats, Mainstream Media, Hollywood, Universities hate him so much that it looks like those groups have become unhinged and even deranged.   Large sums of money are spent by George Soros and other Democrat Party supporters and benfactors to employ paid agitators to be on call to be violent and counterprotest any group or issue the’re told to protest.

2. The media has become so dishonest that absolutely nothing it says about President Trump can be believed.

3. Democrat Party leaders refuse to debate issues but instead make “ad hominen” (personal) attacks against Republicans.  The reason for this is that their policies are really stupid and cannot be successfully argued against informed conservatives.

4. Democrat policy positions on everything, from Healthcare to Tax  Cuts, are disengenuous and are geared soley to further the Democrat Party at the expense of the American public.

5. Far-left Democrats should commend President Obama because he really tried his very best to drasically weaken our military, economic system, and Healthcare in order to further his Socialist agenda and that of the Democrat Party.   He also allowed a large number of illegal alliens into the U.S. since most will vote Democrat, and he doubled the National debt (from $10 trillion to $20 trillion), coming close to bankrupting the country.

6. The Democrat Party and Barack Obama destroyed healthcare insurance for millions of Americans.

7. The far left shouts down conservative speakers on college campuses, thus demostrating it does not believe in the First Amedment to the U.S. Constitution on freedom of speech.

8. If the news media competently did its job and reported fairly on both sides of every issue despite its leftist views, much of the problems I mention above would go away.

9. Many Republican leaders are timid and cannot competently argue conservative policy positions though those positions are usually far better than liberal positions.  Were it not for Fox News, talk radio and President Trump, the Republican Party would be in terrible shape.  In other words, as stupid as most liberal postions are, the timidity of many Republican leaders really hurts conservative policy positions.

CHARLOTTESVILLE: OBSESSED with RACE!

Charlottesville, Virginia, is just another page in race relations in America being corrupted by politics.  Other relatively recent pages that turned political include Mike Brown in Ferguson, Eric Garner in New York, etc., etc.   The Brown incident was due to a policeman protecting himself from being killed; the Garner incident was due to the police being overzealous and inappropriate in its use of force.  Years later the U.S. is still agitated from those incidents, and others, including Charlottesville, to the extent that two New York City police officers, Rafael Ramos and Wenjian Liu, were ambushed and killed for revenge while sitting in their police car. Why?

I believe that many Americans are obsessed with race!   Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr. said that his dream was that one day his four little children will live in a nation where they will be judged, not by the color of their skin, but by the content of their character.  In other words, a “color-blind” society was his dream.  The opposite has and is taking place even though race relations in the U.S. for most people are okay.   Democrat politicians and their minions call anyone a racist who disagrees with them on anything, whether or not it has anything to do with race.   Moreover, the government encourages discrimination in many, many ways including something so minor as requiring race and ethnic information in order to get medical care (I refuse to provide it calling it “racist” on the form).

My credentials for stating the above: while working for the Federal government for over 40 years,  I volunteered to perform three “collateral-duty” jobs that took up to 20% of my official work time, each for a minimum of five years.  Two of the three involved fighting racial, ethnic, and gender discrimination.  In one of my collateral-duty jobs, I was instrumental in increasing Latino employment by my Federal Bureau from under 1 % to 6% of the workforce (as the Hispanic Employment Program Manager); in the other collateral-duty job, I counseled about a dozen minorities and women in seeking remedies for alleged discrimination (as an EEO Counselor).  Each of these positions required extensive training which I was happy to take and I performed well, to the extent that I received EEO awards from my bureau and the Department of Interior.   These experiences, plus working at my father’s butcher shop (with a 99% African-American clientele) when growing up, working as a counselor at a camp with 50% African-American “campers,” and attending a Junior High School with 50% African-American students, gives me a far better perspective than most white Americans in understanding race relations.

My perspective on race relations today versus throughout the past is that, with the exception of the past 9 years, relations have improved significantly in the past 60 years.  But if my perspective is accurate, why is racism such a major concern today? Is it really politics as I stated earlier?  Author of the book, The Big Black Lie, Kevin Jackson, blames the Democratic Party in its attempt to convince voters that Republicans are racists.  In his book, Wrong on Race, Bruce Bartlett enumerates the Democratic Party’s history of racism.  Most recently, author of the book, Mugged, Ann Coulter, gives a very detailed account of racial demogoguery by the Democrat Party from the seventies to Obama.  My own experience and observations validate what I read and make me hopping mad.  The pain and suffering by all parties has been perpetuated solely for political gain.  I also agree with Dinesh D’Souza’s book, The End of Racism, that the American obsession with race is fueled by a civil rights establishment that has a vested interest in perpetuating black dependency.

Will this obsession with race ever end?  Only when the deception behind it is fully exposed and widely acknowledged.  Unfortunately, that day may never come.  What would Dr. King say?  Nothing…I believe he would be  in tears!

Let’s go back in time to when African-Americans were freed from slavery and see what Booker T. Washington, born a slave, who established the Tuskegee Institute in Alabama to educate and train African-Americans and was the most prominent African-American in his day (1856-1915), said in his book, “Up from Slavery”:  “…the policy to be pursued with reference to the races was, by every honorable means, to bring together and to encourage the cultivation of friendly relations, instead of doing that which would embitter.”  What is happening today is the opposite of what Mr. Washington advocated and is being done mostly in order to keep 90% of African-Americans voting for the Democratic Party.

Obviously, the violent protests by the racist groups were reprehensible and the violent protests against them were also wrong.  The violence was wrong. President Trump condemned the violence on three occasions on TV as well as in a few tweets yet he was still criticized.  This indicates how political race has become in America.  It needs to stop.  The first amendment to the U.S. Constitution gives all Americans the right to protest but no one has the right to protest violently and hurt others.  Police need to do their job and immediately arrest anyone being violent.

 

CONSEQUENCES to the U.S. from PRESIDENT OBAMA’S ECONOMIC POLICIES

 

President Obama meant well.  He sounded sincere and touted “fairness” as his primary concern in his governance of the nation.  However, it’s true that “the road to hell is paved with people with good intentions.”  In plain English, it almost doesn’t matter if the President was sincere  and meant well if the results of his policies were to cause great  harm to hundreds of millions of people.  The percentage of Americans with full-time jobs (“Civilian Labor-force Participation Rate”) has not been as low as today (62% of civilian labor force) since the late seventies and if unemployment statistics were calculated the way they were in the year 2000, unemployment would be about 10%.  If they were calculated the way they were during the Great Depression, unemployment would be over 20%.  Below is my analysis of those major policies of President Obama that destroyed the American dream for many Americansand which President Trump and the Congress need to reform:

A. OBAMACARE/AFFORDABLE CARE ACT: This  law is a wet blanket on the economy. While I’m for good healthcare, and for insuring people with pre-existing conditions as well as kids up to the age of 26 years-of-age on their parents insurance, Obamacare is a bureaucratic nightmare with much more expensive premiums for most people, and unbelievably-high deductibles and co-pays.  This turns most Obamacare policies into catastrophic care only because most people will never meet their deductibles and will therefore be paying out-of-pocket for most of their healthcare.  This turkey needs to go and hopefully will be replaced with something created by a combination of Senators and Representatives from both major political parties.

B. IMPEDING ENERGY PRODUCTION:  A decision on the Keystone pipeline was made for political reasons.  Oil production on government land was significantly down, however, basically because the environmental lobby was against all fossil fuels.  Meanwhile, America has more gas, oil, coal, and shale oil than all of the countries in the Middle East combined but government regulations prevent most of it from being developed.  The wealth created by all of this energy could pay off the National debt, the trillions in unfunded liabilities, and produce an economic boom the likes of which no country has ever seen.  And as thoroughly, scientifically, and irrefutably proven in David Archibald’s, Twilight of Abundance, the warming trend of the earth over the last century, up until 18 years ago when it stopped,  is due mostly to Sun Spots and Solar Flares, not to the burning of fossil fuels.  

C. DEFICITS/NATIONAL DEBT: President Obama doubled the National Debt (from $9 trillion to $20).  The Federal government is still borrowing billions/month from the Federal Reserve so the annual budget deficit is currently over 1/2 trillion dollars/year.  Each year the Annual Budget Deficit is added to the total National debt and currently the National debt is about $20 trillion.  This amount of deficit spending and National Debt is unsustainable. The Federal Reserve  has the authority to print money and by doing so has been able to get away with this huge deficit spending,  but doing so without the backing of gold and/or legitimate loans from other countries, simply inflates our currency.  The U.S. dollar is currently the world’s “reserve currency,”  but our borrowing and spending may eventually change that.  When it occurs, the dollar will immediately decrease in value by about 30%, our credit rating dramatically reduced and interest rates on our borrowing dramatically increased, and our ability to borrow severely curtailed.

D. REGULATIONS:  Regulations are necessary in our society but government needs to be very careful in not over-regulating since this can and does add significant costs to the economy, negatively impacts business creation, and reduces freedoms.  The regulations written pursuant to Dodd-Frank, the Endangered Species Act (ESA), and the Affordable Care Act  (“Obamacare”), among many others, are excessively burdensome to people and the economy.  ESA, for example, has caused the destruction of most crops in California’s Central Valley due to the Delta Smelt, a small fish on the Endangered Species list. Dodd-Frank is a financial nightmare that does nothing to prevent future bank problems.  Obamacare has and is destroying jobs.

E.  HIGH TAXES:  Money taken from the economy in taxes should be limited because it hurts the economy.  Tax money should be used only for legitimate purposes.  Higher taxes is a drag and drain on the economy so  government needs to be careful to spend it wisely.  Lowering tax rates on everyone who pays taxes in order to stimulate the economy is the preferred way of increasing tax revenues and growing the economy to pay for Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, unemployment benefits, etc.

F. CORPORATE TAXES:  A significant Obama policy  that has unintentionally done  harm to many people is the retention of the 35% corporate tax, which is higher than any other country in the world.  This has led to the flight  of many U.S. corporations and businesses to other countries, and with this flight, the jobs and taxes that go with them.  They need to be reduced to 15-20%.

G. PROLONGED UNEMPLOYMENT BENEFITS:  Extension of the duration of unemployment benefits for more than  12 months is very harmful to the unemployed as evidenced by studies showing  the unemployed usually do not even look for jobs until a few weeks prior to their unemployment benefits expiring.  At one point, Obama, in conjunction with a Democrat Congress, extended unemployment benefits to 24 months. “Compassion” was the stated reason, but getting the unemployed off of of the official unemployment roles  so that the official unemployment rate would be lowered is the real reaon.

H., I., J.,K., L., M., N., etc.

In closing, most Americans were proud that the U.S. elected an African-American President 151 years after the Emancipation Proclamation freed  American slaves, even if they personally did not vote for him.  The United States inherited slavery from England when it took over the country in 1776 but had to temporarily retain slavery  in order to form the Union to include Southern States (the “Great Compromise”).  At the first opportunity, the U.S. rid itself of slavery (in 1863).

The first African-American President unfortunately had no experience in managing anything or in guiding an economy and therefore the U.S. consequently is badly hurting economically.  While I believe President Obama meant well, he also still believed that failed liberal/”progressive” economic policies (“Keynesian economics”) were the way to stimulate the economy and therefore turned a blind eye to workable economic policies.

President Reagan demonstrated how to get an economy working and the proof is the fact that the Gross Domestic Product (which measures the size of the economy) of the United States almost doubled 1n the 10 years following Reagan’s implementation of his large reduction in tax rates (1983-1993) and curtailing Federal regulations.  President Kennedy also stimulated the economy during a recession in the 60’s by cutting tax rates.

 

 

Recent Posts